OSU on the outside looking in
COVER PHOTO: Ohio State head coach Ryan Day (left) argues with referees during their game against Maryland on Oct. 7, 2023. The Buckeyes won, 37-17. Picture by Sam Fahmi/Columbus Wired.
Somebody queue up the infamous “Dumb and Dumber” movie quote.
After Jim Carrey’s character, Lloyd Christmas, was told by Lauren Holly’s character, Mary Swanson, in the 1994 comedy classic that he had a one in a million shot at dating her, he exuberantly replied, “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
That’s likely the sentiment from some hopeful Buckeye fans after the latest College Football Playing rankings were announced on Tuesday night, which dropped them from No. 2 to No. 6 after their 30-24 loss to previously ranked No. 3 Michigan on Saturday. The undefeated Wolverines (12-0) moved up one spot.
Georgia (12-0) remained atop the rankings while 12-0 Washington moved up a spot to No. 3 and loss-less Florida State (12-0) is in prime position in the fourth and final spot. 11-1 Oregon is ahead of the Buckeyes at No. 5.
Texas and Alabama, who are both 11-1, rank Nos. 7 and 8, respectively, and both are playing for conference titles this weekend.
Number six may seem to some like a dagger has been flung into Brutus’ chest and caused certain death for a spot in the final four but that’s not necessarily true. Granted, it’s going to take a whole bunch of hijinks for the 11-1 Buckeyes to slide in but maybe Buckeye Nation should take a page out of Lloyd’s book and remain cautiously optimistic.
However, some already seem not to care whether or not Ohio State is still in the hunt because they feel the Buckeyes don’t deserve it after seeing their beloved Scarlet and Gray drop their third straight to the Maize and Blue. And there are some irrationally irate, yet still begrudgingly Buckeye faithful who are so infuriated by the loss they don’t want them to get in simply out of spite.
At this point, those feelings are irrelevant because what matters is how the CFP committee thinks. And right now, they believe the Buckeyes are still one of the best teams in the country due to their
BREAKDOWN
First off, absolutely NO one-loss team that is also in position to get in can win their conference championship this weekend. THAT will be the kiss of death for the 11-1 Buckeyes who are not playing in their conference championship game. Instead, that’s between Michigan - whose win over Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East Division title - and the 16th-rated Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 7-2) who represent the West Division.
If the Hawkeyes somehow knock off the unbeaten Wolverines on Saturday night, that in and of itself would probably spell doom for the Buckeyes because if there is any deliberation between allowing in a one-loss team that didn’t win their conference championship, Michigan’s head-to-head win over Ohio State should surely win over the minds of committee members thus keeping them in the playoff and OSU out.
That’s probably a tough pill to swallow for a lot of Buckeye fans but it can’t taste any worse than the one bitterly gulped on Saturday afternoon. Michigan has to win, period.
The top-ranked Bulldogs are taking on 11-1, No. 8 Alabama for the SEC. If any team would have a major argument for getting into the CFP as a one-loss conference champ, the Crimson Tide would own that debate in spades. Knocking off the back-to-back defending national champion Dawgs, who are on a 29-game winning streak, would certainly give Bama some huge love and catapult them into the top four. There is no way an SEC champion is NOT getting into the playoff, the committee loves the SEC.
A Tide win could actually be a double kiss of despair for Ohio State because the committee might ponder if Georgia should also stay in the top four given their success the past two seasons.
Georgia needs to win their second consecutive conference title if the Buckeyes want to remain relevant.
The last-ever Pac-12 championship will see Washington and Oregon square up one more time this year seven weeks after their thrilling showdown in mid-October which Washington won, 36-33.
With the Ducks already a spot ahead of Ohio State, they’re assuredly getting in with a retaliatory victory over the Huskies.
One-loss Texas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12) meets 9-3, No. 18 Oklahoma State for the first time this year while 12-0 Florida State collides with No. 10 Louisville (10-2) who’s seeking their first-ever title in their first-ever championship game appearance since joining the conference in 2014 which is the last time the Seminoles clinched the league.
If Texas wins, they’re in over Ohio State. Even though the Longhorns are a spot below the Buckeyes, the committee still feels better about a one-loss, Power-5 conference champion than a one-loss, non-champion.
And obviously Florida State needs to lose. Even though they sit two spots ahead of OSU, in a head-to-head comparison, their loss to a 10-2 Louisville team - who’s coming off a seven-point loss to 7-5 Kentucky at home last weekend - would look worse than Ohio State’s six-point loss on the road to the second-ranked team in the nation.
So IF, if, if, if, if, if Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oklahoma State and Louisville all win, then the Buckeyes should rest confident that their ticket has punched a second straight year for a shot to play for all the marbles.
But as stated before, that’s a lot of hijinks. And even though some may be doing their best Lloyd Christmas impersonation, crossing their fingers and praying to the football gods that they smile upon the Buckeyes, it looks like a steep hill to climb and folks might be better off saving their breath for a “consolation” New Year’s Six bowl in Atlanta, New Orleans, Arlington, Tex. or Glendale, Ariz.