How much stock should go into recruiting rankings?
COVER PHOTO: Former OSU quarterback Quinn Ewers on the sideline during their game against Purdue in Ohio Stadium on Nov. 13, 2021. Picture by Sam Fahmi/Columbus Wired.
For Division I FBS and FCS college football fans, this time of the year has become almost like a mini-holiday because of the early signing period for National Letter of Intent Day.
On the third Wednesday in December starting at 7 a.m. and ending less than three days later on Friday at 11:59 p.m., a prospective student-athlete can end their recruitment sooner rather than later ever since the Collegiate Commissioners Association instituted the measure in 2017.
It also means “bragging rights” for rabid supporters to gush over their beloved institution’s much ballyhooed recruits.
Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day inked 19 guys on Wednesday and one more on Thursday that make up the nation’s sixth-rated class, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings, with an average player rating of 93.57, which is third-best. Only Alabama and Georgia’s player ratings are higher at 94.76 and 93.75, and the two schools finished Nos. 1 and 2 in the overall rankings, respectively.
Most fans would probably feel the Buckeyes coming in with the No. 6 class with that high of a player rating is something to feel great about. However, some may feel it lacks “star power” as only one five-star recruit signed, wide receiver Brandon Inniss out of Fort Lauderdale (American Heritage) Florida. That’s in comparison with no less than three five-stars signing in each class going back to 2017.
What’s in a “star”, though? Do we get too wrapped up in how a school’s overall ranking looks compared to others?
And with the NCAA now allowing D-I football players one-time, immediate transfer eligibility, it’s caused the portal to explode the last couple of years and has players lined up like children eagerly waiting at the mall to sit on Santa’s lap. So is it really worth getting hyped up for a guy labeled as the next big-hit that might be gone the very next season?
Now don’t misconstrue the conveyance of this message. Recruiting is very important. It’s not as if coaches should just throw up their hands and NOT go after the best of the best. And transfers always happen. It’s not like the portal has all of a sudden created a flux of young men questioning their original decision, that’s been the case with some guys way before the portal came along.
Last year, the Buckeyes only had two guys from the class of 2021 throw the peace sign at Columbus at the end of the season. But one of those was quarterback Quinn Ewers, who had Buckeye Nation salivating as the highest-ranked recruit in school history at a perfect 1.0000. The Southlake (Carroll) Texas 17-year-old didn’t even make it four months at OSU, entering the portal six days following the Michigan game after enrolling on August 15.
However, sometimes finding that four-star gem or three-star diamond in-the-rough can be just as important as signing a handful of blue chip five-stars. Case in point, four-star quarterback Lincoln Kienholz from T.F. Riggs (Pierre, South Dakota) High School. Ohio State didn’t start recruiting him until October but when he started breaking all kinds of state records, Day and his staff’s ears perked up and decided to jump in on the action. Already committed to Washington, Kienholz decided to flip his commitment to the Buckeyes even though, by his own admission, the Huskies “have a better NIL program” than OSU. He was also an all-state basketball and baseball player, a true all-around athlete.
Remember the 2002 class where former head coach Jim Tressel signed four blue chippers in quarterback Justin Zwick, offensive tackle Derek Morris, linebacker Mike D’Andrea and running back Maurice Clarett?
With the exception of Clarett, the other three are widely considered busts. Morris never started and eventually transferred, Zwick would lose the starting job to Troy Smith only six games after earning the job halfway through the 2004 season, and D’Andrea’s career was constantly plagued with injuries and after his freshman season, faded into obscurity. Unfortunately, we all remember Clarett’s demise within the program just a couple of months after helping them win the national championship against Miami in 2002. If it weren’t for that, he probably could have gone down as one of the greatest running backs in school history.
Also in that class were three-star “throw-ins” like linebacker A.J. Hawk, offensive linemen Rob Sims, T.J. Downing and Nick Mangold, defensive end Jay Richardson and wide receiver Santonio Holmes. All of these guys would go on to start as well as have a career in the NFL.
Smith went on to win a lot of games in two-and-a-half years as the starter, including a 3-0 record versus Michigan, as well as a national championship game appearance and the Heisman Trophy in 2006.
Taking a gander at the 2013 class, which finished No. 2 in the nation despite having “only” two five-star recruits in safety Vonn Bell and athlete Jalin Marshall, former head coach Urban Meyer still signed a class that was loaded with four-star guys like quarterback J.T. Barrett, defensive end Joey Bosa, running back Ezekiel Elliott and cornerbacks Eli Apple and Gareon Conley. Also in that class was three-star afterthought Darron Lee.
All they did was go on to win the national championship the next season, which included one of the greatest wins in school history by beating an undefeated, No. 1 Alabama in the first-ever FBS playoff, which was technically the first victory over an SEC school in the postseason.
Granted, with the exception of Lee who went to the NFL, those other guys were all heralded four-star recruits. But still, they weren’t five-stars.
What about those schools that have high-ranking classes just about every year but can’t do anything with them?
Like Texas, for example, who has signed some of the best classes every year.
247Sports currently has them as third-best in the nation and going back to 2010, they’ve had seven classes in the top five and three more in the top 10.
Yet, when was the last time the Longhorns have contended for a national title?
They played Alabama for the national championship in 2009 and were embarrassed, 37-21. Since then, Texas has suffered through five losing seasons and haven’t finished any higher than eighth in the final AP polls (2018), and have finished in the top-25 only five times since that game. Their best season in that span was 2018 where they went 10-4 but lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game.
Then, there are the Wolverines.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh has had some decent classes, ranking No. 17 this year with his best coming in 2017 when he signed the fifth-best. Because it typically takes a season or two, sometimes up to even three or four years for a recruit’s presence to be felt, it’s probably fair to judge how the Wolverines have played since the 2018 class. In that span, they haven’t had a class rank higher than eighth and Harbaugh has only signed a total of four five-stars while leading them to 10-3, 9-4, 2-4, 12-2 and now 13-0 records in the last five years.
In comparison, Ohio State has brought in 19 blue chippers with four classes ranking in the top five, went 13-1, 13-1, 7-1, 11-2 and 11-1 with three straight Big Ten titles, two appearances in the playoff with one being in the national championship game.
Yet, the Wolverines have decisively won the last two contests with two straight Big Ten titles and playoff appearances under their belt. An aberration or just the way things go sometimes? I’ll opt for the latter. Having a solid top-five or just-barely-outside-of-that class every year should be good enough to contend for not only conference titles but national ones, too.
Ultimately, it’s not how recruits look on paper but their performance on the field. So before some within Buckeye Nation write off this class as not looking good, remember there are always other schools who thought they had a national championship-contending class (Texas), only to continuously go down in flames while other schools (Michigan) have looked decent and been written off yet have recently prospered in the face of “adversity”.
Then again, there’s Alabama. Head coach Nick Saban, once again, has this year’s top class and has had the Crimson Tide No. 1 nearly every year, including a seven-year stretch between 2011 and 2017. All they’ve done is win six national championships since 2009 with seven playoff appearances since the inception in 2014.
Maybe there is something to be said about recruiting rankings.